Swine flu level raised to 6

[LarnaE]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090611/ap_on_he_me/un_un_swine_flu_19




<CITE class=caption> Swine Flu to Be Declared Pandemic </CITE>


<!-- end #main-media --><!-- end .primary-media --> (http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/World-Health-Organization/photo//090611/481/dc091c8ad42a424db159123eddb3666f//s:/ap/20090611/ap_on_he_me/un_un_swine_flu_19)<CITE class=caption>AP – The logo of the World Health Organization is seen at the WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Thursday, …</CITE>

<!-- end .secondary-media -->
<!-- end .related-media --><ABBR class=recenttimedate title=2009-06-11T07:11:55-0700>24 mins ago</ABBR>
<!-- end .byline -->GENEVA – The World Health Organization has told its member nations it is declaring a swine flu pandemic — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years.
The move came Thursday as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.
In a statement sent to member countries, WHO says it decided to raise the pandemic alert level from phase 5 to 6, meaning that a global outbreak of swine flu has begun. The decision was made after the U.N. health agency held an emergency meeting on swine flu with its experts.

[arbilad]

In my humble, non-expert opinion, the numbers just aren't there to support a statement like that.

[signseeker]

Too bad it wasn't a pandemic back when we cared...

[LoudmouthMormon]

Well, declaring a pandemic talks only about virulence (ability to infect/cause disease), right? Declaring a pandemic doesn't really say anything about the severity of the disease.

So, this will be the first relatively mild pandemic (at least, it's currently mildm with a 0.4% fatality rate). Unfortunately, people will hear the word and panic, because people tend to not care about what words mean - they just know that "Pandemic" would be a great title for an end-times apocalypse movie starring Bruce Willis and Uma Thurman.

LM

[signseeker]

Bruce Willis? :pukey: I'm not seein' it.

[LarnaE]

Yes, it is a mild pandemic, but it seem to be highly contageous. I am thinking about what happens at my house when everyone is sick with the flu at the same time. The whole house shuts down and we do only what we absolutly have to do. Now if a whole community is sick even with a mild pandemic and most everyone stays home from work, then I could see this causing problems for the whole community in an already struggling economy. If enough people get sick even a mild pandemic can hurt a lot of people.

[LoudmouthMormon]

Yes. And the less-developed a country you live in, the higher your chances of dying from it. One reason the WHO gave in raising the alert level, is to allow the less-developed countries in Africa, where the flu hasn't shown up yet, move their preparadness efforts into full swing. Because although a US community will suffer economically, a 3rd world country will suffer massive loss of life.

[thomasusa]

Wait! N1H1 was declared a pandemic not because of the numbers or the severity of the illness, but because of geography. It is determined by the number of countries involved.
<o></o>
And don’t get to worried about how few cases WHO is reporting. Yesterday at KSL.com there is an article that talks about how Utah Dept of Health has changed the testing guidelines and the way reporting is done. (read: http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=6786397 )
<o></o>
This was a response to the flood of semi-sick people packing hospital ERs demanding anti-viral drugs. Now only the patients sick enough to be admitted will be tested/reported.
<o></o>
I don’t believe that UDOH is smart enough to come up with this change on their own. (Doesn’t all change come from Obamma? I heard him said it on the news. "All change comes from me.") It should be obvious that other states are doing it or are going to do it. The important result is under reporting.
<o></o>
Case in point: My son is in the MTC. One of the Elder’s in his room has a confirmed case. There are many more there and it is spreading. And yet the 90 reported cases in <st1><st1:state w:st="on">Utah</st1:state></st1> doesn’t go up. Why? Under reporting!
<o></o>
On a personal note: I wish I could get it now to get a little immunity before it makes its 12 week mutation cycle and begins killing many more.

[sparrow]

The U.N is not using the word mild anymore...it is now considered 'moderate'. The moderate word is explained on the W.H.O h1n1 site to mean that:

Quote:
Most people recover from infection without the need for hospitalization or medical care.
Overall, national levels of severe illness from influenza A(H1N1) appear similar to levels seen during local seasonal influenza periods, although high levels of disease have occurred in some local areas and institutions.
Overall, hospitals and health care systems in most countries have been able to cope with the numbers of people seeking care, although some facilities and systems have been stressed in some localities

Perhaps it will stay at mild to moderate for the southern hemi run. I'm in Australia. 1500 cases....though in perspective ...75 per million case rate (at least by official *cough* numbers). Beginning U.S measures in terms of confirming and medicating (severe cases only...tamiflu blanketting is on its way out...we don't have enough to last through winter to do that....the national stockpile is only enough courses for half the population so resources won't cover that strategy...and of course because of the chances of resistance developing). Seems to be okay-ish...only a minor concern that since we managed to incubate the Brisbane influenza strain that is resistant to tamiflu... there is the slight chance of another change in viral structure. But if it hasn't happened so far anywhere.... The changing of h1n1 seems to be slowish...they are only seeing slight changes in structure as it spreads and it is on the whole *similar* to the original strain.

Immunity ...vaccines tend to lose their percentage of effectiveness by the end of the three months of winter flu season. Seasonal flu viruses change quickly. Not sure that getting h1n1 would help anymore than getting the flu usually does. Maybe a little. Not sure if I want to find out whether I'm in the majority that has a mild case of it or in the minority that ends up on a vent.

Cases are starting to develop around my locality. Can always drop the alert back to mild when it joins the rest of the seasonal flu in the ranks....and it will eventually...just like the 1968 one did...you know go back to affecting only the over 65s and a normal seasonal cough spread ...perhaps sooner than they did and hopefully with a lower mortality. Moderate as in there's some problems involved is probably about right for now....thinking of Melbourne, New York and such.

0.4 CFR ....the pandemic severity index/wikipedia...U.S CDC chart
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index
Mild=seasonal flu. 0.4 is beginning to move towards moderate....not quite...but in some localities it might be higher. Fair enough.

[arbilad]

If you're really worried about getting the pig plague, go out and get some sun. Literally. Sun helps the body develop vitamin d, which is very effective in helping the body fight off flu.