H1N1 In Our Stake

[mirkwood]

So I was recently informed we have at least one case of H1N1 in our stake, possibly two. We also have Influenza A in our ward and a friend told me that the medical profession is assuming cases of Influenza A are actually H1N1. Nice. We also had some officers at work that have been exposed during a call. Nice.

[Cowboy]

Been nice knowing you.

[ghostcat]

Been nice knowing you.:smilielol5: I almost posted the exact same thought, but Cowboy beat me to the punch!

[mirkwood]

Ok so when I survive and the rest of you are dead. Can I have your guns, ammo and rice?

[Cowboy]

You can have my cat.

[arbilad]

Little known to anyone else, Mirk actually designed H1N1. He's the only one with the antidote. So you better watch what you say about cats...
Seriously, though, I still think that this basically a lot of scare tactics on the part of the media to get ratings. So what if you get swine flu (statistically not very likely so far)? You'll be really sick for a few days. It's very unlikely, statistically, that you'll kick the bucket.

[sparrow]

I guess the trick is to be alert enough to the fact that it could be dire.... while realising that the majority of people live through an influenza pandemic, no matter how bad. The stats for the 1918 pandemic were globally ... like a 97% chance that you'd be fine. Yep...even in the nastiest of world wide pandemics ...almost everyone got better. That doesn't sound so bad does it.

Let's say a third of the U.S population gets swine flu at 0.4% case fatality rate (this may be too high or too low...we can't really predict the future..but it is an accepted figure at the moment), that works out at...0.1% of the population rather than the 0.01% or less of normal influenza associated mortality in the population of the U.S. That still gives you a 99.9% survival rate. 0.1% mortality seems a small risk percentage? While your chances of survival are high...the other impacts of such an increase in fatality on systems and infrastructure that are not prepared for that and on agegroups that are not normally affected may cause some problems. There already are problems in hospitals etc. So having to rally to help those affected is already happening and will continue to be needed until it all returns back to normal seasonal influenza...even if it seems not that big a deal...its a big enough deal. In the now...its widespread...that makes it a pandemic. No, we're not all gunna die (we tend to reserve that statement for epidemics with a 50% to 70% mortality rate...its a possibility...but not at the moment i.e. bubonic plague, viral SARS, H5N1/avian flu).

Here are some famous quotes from 1918

According to historians, the first reaction of most authorities during the 1918 pandemic was “just flat-out denial.” The Chief Health Officer of New Zealand told the papers to “tell your readers not to get upset.” Rome’s Chief Sanitation Officer belittled the flu as a “transitory miniscule phenomenon.” Poland’s Public Health Commission and Rhodesia’s Medical Director issued the identical bromide: “There is no cause for alarm.”Toronto’s Medical Officer was saying, “There is absolutely no necessity for anxiety,” even as the plague arrived on their doorsteps,echoing the Health Commissioner of New York City: “The city is in no danger of an epidemic. No need for our people to worry.”The same disbelief existed:from fancy dress balls in the Johannesburg City Hall in Spanish costume emblazoned with “Spanish flu” to Londoners holding “sneezing parties” with a bottle of champagne given as prize to the lustiest sneeze, the citizens of the world in early 1918 ridiculed as a joke the threat of “Spanish Influenza"
Sound familiar?

Okay, while a lot of that went on (hey, its human to respond in that way), most communities mobilised and had reduced business hours or allowed flexibility for nursing home patients, some quarantine measures, voluntary work after work-hours (community nursing etc) or wore masks. Even though the majority did not die and a lot of people said its not a big deal and joked about it... community support was needed. I'll bet the media during the 1918 pandemic varied between hyperinflation, under-reporting and no reporting on it at all (not conducive to the war-effort theory).

Its not that I'm comparing h1n1 to Spanish influenza because I think its going to be as big as the 1918 influenza...what I'm saying is...treating pandemics with respect is a sensible approach. Inaction is also a form of panic.